For only the fourth time in 2024, the Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index, a leading economic indicator for the nine-state region stretching from Minnesota to Arkansas, climbed above the 50.0 growth neutral threshold.
Ernie Goss is the director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group. Goss said “The overall index, much like the U.S. reading, has vacillated around growth neutral since December of 2023. Additionally, supply managers remained pessimistic regarding the 2024 outlook with only 11% expecting growth for the rest of 2024,”
The wholesale price gauge fell for the fifth straight month to a level indicating cooling inflationary pressures.
Supply managers expect input prices to expand by only 2.3% in the next 12 months after a 4.0% increase over the past 12 months.
The region’s employment index slumped below growth neutral for a seventh straight month.
As a result of a weak 2024 economy and cooling inflationary pressures, Goss expects at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve for the remainder of 2024.
The Business Conditions Index ranges between 0 and 100 with 50.0 representing growth neutral. The July index declined to 50.7 from 51.3 in June.